Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 13.094374 14.967538 16.976093 19.285574 21.863124 24.646676 27.875380
2025-10-19 10.261130 12.799262 15.725330 19.329886 23.631265 28.579261 34.680061
2025-10-26 8.639560 11.410999 14.759693 19.070175 24.434262 30.849777 39.059143
2025-11-02 7.516119 10.454095 14.156794 19.112142 25.509210 33.422289 43.874849
2025-11-09 6.702035 9.752993 13.741351 19.260426 26.610832 35.964466 48.651571
2025-11-16 5.957116 9.046555 13.226020 19.191675 27.367698 38.043943 52.875961
2025-11-23 5.302863 8.384635 12.690327 19.016369 27.918818 39.821889 56.722695
2025-11-30 4.839503 7.942536 12.408169 19.144106 28.852644 42.111711 61.307009
2025-12-07 4.548504 7.722537 12.414413 19.660900 30.330317 45.178090 67.044402
2025-12-14 4.094359 7.204285 11.932264 19.416189 30.680376 46.661029 70.610411
2025-12-21 3.564102 6.511288 11.125303 18.617442 30.152518 46.843656 72.306550
2025-12-28 3.396769 6.394704 11.198984 19.158698 31.633492 49.964359 78.317285
2026-01-04 3.196463 6.209937 11.158098 19.529011 32.890781 52.837209 84.126589
2026-01-11 2.915443 5.858593 10.818591 19.397361 33.358045 54.546346 88.276408
2026-01-18 2.653551 5.513731 10.458965 19.199480 33.693107 56.045221 92.135602
2026-01-25 2.455025 5.265143 10.242299 19.219090 34.366534 58.075142 96.858073
2026-02-01 2.297152 5.077287 10.115114 19.376283 35.261228 60.469626 102.208441
2026-02-08 2.119367 4.832864 9.867086 19.304234 35.762992 62.250148 106.646342
2026-02-15 1.943835 4.574957 9.573554 19.129085 36.073197 63.722474 110.630209
2026-02-22 1.823872 4.418614 9.455762 19.257098 36.898815 66.046908 116.034504
2026-03-01 1.761350 4.376979 9.551546 19.776675 38.420996 69.558127 123.455263
2026-03-08 1.613854 4.137252 9.245708 19.530663 38.579388 70.805181 127.211314
2026-03-15 1.419785 3.773178 8.665435 18.727834 37.698354 70.264059 127.985240